BI Ramal Ekonomi Kuartal IV Tumbuh di Atas 4,5%

Intinews | Bank Indonesia optimistis pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal terakhir tahun ini meningkat dibandingkan kuartal ketiga mencapai di atas 4,5%. Ekonomi akan didukung oleh konsumsi rumah tangga dan pemerintah.  “Kami melihat pertumbuhan di kuartal IV ini akan terus membaik dengan perkiraan bisa di atas 4,5%,” kata Perry Warjiyo dalam konferensi pers virtual, Kamis (16/12).

Perry mengatakan, konsumsi rumah tangga di akhir tahun akan meningkat seiring periode musiman Hari Raya Natal dan Tahun Baru. Konsumsi pemerintah juga masih akan tinggi seiring ekspansi fiskal yang biasanya dikebut pada akhir tahun. Optimisme juga terlihat dari sejumlah indikator hingga Desember yang menunjukkan proses pemulihan masih berlanjut. Indeks mobilitas yang dirilis Badan Pusat Statistik menunjukkan mobilitas di rumah menurun, sedangkan mobilitas di luar rumah meningkat, terutama di sejumlah pusat perbelanjaan.

Indeks keyakinan konsumen juga semakin optimistis. Ini terlihat dari Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen (IKK) yang selalu di atas 100 poin beberapa bulan terakhir. Sektor manufaktur juga terus ekspansif, ditunjukan dengan indeks PMI dalam beberapa bulan terakhir yang terus di atas 50 poin. BACA JUGA The Fed Percepat Tapering Off, Bagaimana Antisipasi BI? Dengan beberapa indikasi tersebut, Perry mengatakan, terdapat beberapa industri yang berpotensi menjadi motor pertumbuhan di akhir tahun ini, antara lain sektor industri pengolahan, perdagangan

Dengan beberapa indikasi tersebut, Perry mengatakan, terdapat beberapa industri yang berpotensi menjadi motor pertumbuhan di akhir tahun ini, antara lain sektor industri pengolahan, perdagangan dan pertambangan. “Pertumbuhan ekonomi diprakirakan membaik pada kuartal IV 2021 sejalan dengan meningkatnya mobilitas pasca langkah-langkah penanganan yang ditempuh Pemerintah dalam pengendalian Covid-19 varian Delta,” kata Perry. Perry pun memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi untuk keseluruhan tahun ini mencapai 3,2%-4%. Adapun pemulihan akan semakin kuat pada tahun depan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam rentang 4,7%-5,5%.

Menurut Perry, perbaikan ekonomi tahun depan akan didukung oleh konsumsi masyarakat yang akan semakin meningkat. Selain itu, kinerja ekspor juga masih akan cukup tinggi, di samping belanja fiskal pemerintah yang tetap terjaga. “Ini sejalan dengan mobilitas yang terus meningkat, pembukaan ekonomi yang semakin luas, serta stimulus kebijakan yang berlanjut,” kata Perry.

Kepala Peneliti Makroekonomi dan Pasar Keuangan Bank Mandiri Dian Ayu Yustina sebelumnya memperkirakan, pertumbuhan ekonomi pada tiga bulan terakhir 2021 mencapai 5,04%.” Kami optimistis ekonomi bisa rebound kembali ke level sebelum pandemi dengan pertumbuhan di kisaran 5% pada kuartal IV,” kata Dian dalam media briefing virtual, Rabu (8/12).

Optimisme terhadap pertumbuhan yang semakin kuat didukung membaiknya sejumlah indikator utama ekonomi . Hal ini karena dampak lonjakan varian Covid-19 Delta cukup terbatas dan hanya tejadi di separuh kuartal ketiga saja. Adapun memasuki September, pemulihan ekonomi mulai terlihat. (**/vv)

 

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